Saturday, February 11, 2012

"Get ready to pay $5 a gallon for gasoline..."

UPDATE: 2/16/12 - There's more news from USA Today that the Obama administration is looking at summer gas prices to be higher than normal this year. ThinkProgress.org quotes Businessweek's report that new data indicates that the current price increases are not due to increases in domestic demand.
"Petrol demand is as low as it’s been since April 1997,” says Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst for the Oil Price Information Service. “People are properly puzzled by the fact that we’re using less gas than we have in years, yet we’re paying more.
Kloza believes much of the increase is due to speculative money that’s flowed into gasoline futures contracts since the beginning of the year, mostly from hedge funds and large money managers."
Documents released in September 2011 by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) lead to the conclusion that the high 2008 gas prices were the result of "rampant speculation" by "...noncommercial players, meaning they are companies that simply and buy and sell crude contracts with no interest in actually refining and selling the product."

Do it looks like speculators are back to making bets on the gasoline market and you and I are paying increased prices without getting any more gas delivered to the pumps.

UPDATE: 2/11/12 - News from AmericaBlog with a link to a CNBC article today that gas prices may peak at over $5.00 this year. The CNBC story starts:
Get ready to pay $5 a gallon for gasoline this year.

John Hofmeister, founder of Citizens for Affordable Energy and the former CEO of Shell Oil’s U.S. operations, warned that there is a “better than 50 percent chance” the price of gas will spike on continued heavy demand in emerging markets and weak public policy at home.
AmericaBlog then adds a note about the sighting of $4.99 gas at a service station in Washington, D.C. near the Watergate. Maybe the station is just getting an early start on higher profits with all the CPAC members in town.

Pundits and TV commentators can argue the need for more domestic oil production and acquisition of more oil from Canada. But the problem is also developing countries driving up the overall price of crude to support their own growing consumption of oil and oil-based products. In the meantime, American consumers have been ill-served for decades by car companies who promoted oversized behemoths that mostly obtained less than 20 mpg and gas companies who accepted tax subsidies while increasing their corporate profits with constantly higher gas prices.

If there's not enough gasoline and diesel to go around, the solution is to use less gasoline and diesel. The growing use of hybrids will help if you can afford them. But for most car owners driving around in cars and trucks that now average 10.8 years old the only solution is to plan now to use less gas.

The remainder of this article began several years ago during one of the earlier spikes in gas prices. It"s time to brush up on your technique. Getting more miles per gallon is really a simple process that can be learned by any driver. All of us can make sure even our old cars are well maintained, leave earlier for our destination and slow down just a little bit to make that $4.00 or higher gasoline or diesel go just a little further. Oh yes, and check the air pressure in your tires once each week.

The rest of the earlier article on getting the most mileage from every gasoline dollar starts after the jump...


Driving down the demand for high-priced fuel
There's no magic pill that you can drop into a gas tank or secret device you can purchase that will increase your gas mileage beyond your wildest dreams. The best way to improve gas mileage is to have a degree in automotive engineering, a full understanding of the Laws of Physics and good common sense when you purchase your next car.

Picture: Our 2004 Saturn VUE on the Talimena Scenic Drive near Mena, Arkansas.

Yes, I remember when gasoline was $0.25 a gallon and I was the skinny kid with the slightly greasy t-shirt who cleaned your windshield while the pump was filling your tank. Gas will never be that inexpensive again. So the next best way to save money on fuel costs, if you're stuck with your present vehicle, is to simply slow down and enjoy the scenery!

 

After reading "Get More Than 40 Miles Per Gallon Without a Hybrid," a short "how to" article on Wired Online, Katy and I decided to use an unexpected trip to Florida to see if any of the hints in the article would actually help us save money. Our 2004 Saturn VUE has a revised EPA estimated MPG rating of 21 city and 26 highway. The VUE is a medium sized SUV pushing a fairly large hole through the air when traveling. Katy and I then add extra weight in the form of books, computers, cameras and about a half a closet full of clothes for up to 10 days of travel. I don't need a roof rack, and I can still see out the back window, but the whole area behind the front seats is fully loaded. We no longer travel on long trips in our smaller Saturn SC2. Either one of us or our luggage would have to stay home if we did.

IF you read and manage to gain some improvement in your gas mileage after reading the above article, AND you wish to learn more, check out "108 hypermiling / ecodriving tips..." for a wider range of helpful hints. Again, apply common sense. A couple of their ideas are fairly radical. One or two of the radical ideas are not for the meek or drivers with heart trouble, but it's OK to try the easy stuff first. Example: Leave early and take your time. Excessive speed is your enemy. 


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Using a ScanGaugeII to monitor real time fuel economy
So impressed was I with the improved mileage following a few simple directions in the two articles, I went ahead and took a chance on the second major step suggested in the first article by purchasing a ScanGaugeII, the electronic trip computer, engine monitor,  performance and diagnostic tool. We found one at Maximum Audio Video in Tampa. Mike Barcia showed me the device and made the sale. I easily installed the gauge with Velcro (included), a few handy zip-ties and stick-on retainers and my pocket Leatherman tool trimmed the excess from the zip-ties.

Since I purchased my original ScanGaugeII, Linear Logic has also released a slightly smaller and less expensive ScanGaugeE. The newer ScanGaugeE adds a moment-by moment graphic display to help drivers keep in "economy mode."  Neither is an inexpensive tool. You're actually paying for a specialized computer monitor that easily attaches to your console or instrument panel. Both ScanGauge monitors give you access to the hidden information already available to the sophisticated ODBII engine computer that has been built into every U.S. vehicle since 1996. Direct prices and North American dealers are available on the ScanGaugeII website.


Picture: ScanGaugeII mounts with Velcro tape. Cable connects to the standard port used by service personnel for engine diagnostics. I wanted the gauge as close to my line of sight as possible for easy viewing. 

I wouldn't recommend anyone purchase either ScanGauge until you've tried the common sense written guidelines already mentioned above articles and have actually experienced some success obtaining higher mileage. Second, many of the newer vehicles sold in the last year or two may already have one or more economy devices or digital readouts that computes average gas consumption for each trip or tank full of fuel. Some add instantaneous fuel consumption. So look in your owner's manual and make sure you understand all the gauges and information available as standard equipment from the manufacturer before you invest in something you may already have.

Neither the ScanGaugeII nor ScanGaugeE is magic, but it does give you several additional tools to help evaluate your day-to-day driving. The access to real time information is like biofeedback. You see your actual fuel consumption, throttle position and engine load, and that information is what motivates you, the driver, to modify your own behavior appropriately. The ScanGaugeII does not limit the vehicle's speed like a mechanical or electronic speed governor, but it helps the driver gain new skill in reacting to normal road conditions more economically. And as the price of fuel continues to increase over the long term, believe me. I may be an old racer, but I WANT to drive more economically. Indeed, some of the racing skills learned about smooth car control, actually transfers rather quickly.

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Real World Trip Mileage
On our first 10-day trip with the ScanGaugeII of 3,294 miles with our VUE loaded in full vacation mode, we experienced hilly terrain as you would expect in Nebraska and South Dakota. We also experienced several days with either rain, strong head winds, crosswinds or wind and rain. These were certainly not ideal test conditions but I was pleased to find we still averaged 29.5 miles per gallon for the entire trip. See table for a comparison of early trips while still in learning mode:

Trip - Dates
Trip Miles
Trip Avg. MPG
Best tankAvg. Cost/Gal.
Dakota Trip - 9/17-9/26/08
first full trip w/ScanGaugeII
3,294 29.5 33.4$3.49
Florida Trip - 6/11-6/19/08
purchased ScanGaugeII on trip
2,809 28.9 31.5$3.94
Florida Trip - 11/16-11/24/07
baseline without ScanGaugeII
2,678 28.1 31.0$3.03

The VUE's trip mileage continued improving as Katy and I learned new ways to save fuel but the real trick is basically all about slowing down and trading more time for more fuel economy. Over the 10 day period, I could not determine any significant difference comparing fuel consumption calculated after each refill (average 29.5 mpg) with the average daily consumption recorded from the ScanGaugeII at the end of each day (average 29.44 mpg). I still like to calculate and record the mileage for each tank. You can't measure your progress if you don't keep records.

During the portions of the trip in South Dakota and Iowa we found many gasoline stations where regular 87 octane unleaded gasoline was about 10 cents/gallon more expensive than a mid-range 10% ethanol blend rated at 89 octane. After returning home I found a reference to an EPA research article about how 10% ethanol-gasoline blends impact gas mileage. Since gasoline has more energy than an equal amount of ethanol, we would normally expect a slight reduction in miles per gallon using 10% ethanol. EPA studies suggest that:

...the theoretically expected decrease in fuel energy as a result of oxygenate use is in the 2% to 3% range when compared to gasoline. This corresponds to 0.5 to 0.8 miles per gallon for a car that averages 27 miles per gallon.

From: Korum, David J. et. al., "Fuel Economy and Engine Performance Issues 3," Washington: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, n.d. p. 3-8. Available online: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/fuels/ostp-3.pdf

In December 2007, there was a press release from the American Coalition for Ethanol and the University of North Dakota that mid-range ethanol blends in the 20% to 30% range could even increase fuel mileage. The study was based on the results of only four 2007 model vehicles. I would also be concerned about using ethanol levels higher than 10% in any vehicles that were not designed for higher levels of ethanol use. Check the owner's manual to be certain of the manufacturer's fuel recommendation before you experiment with anything over 10% ethanol. Given the other variables in traffic, weather and elevation changes we experienced on our 3,200 trip, there is no way I would even speculate if ethanol increased or decreased our own mileage.

On the long flat Interstate runs during the Dakota trip, I did notice how quickly the mileage improved over level terrain. I've also experimented with positioning the VUE 3 to 4 seconds behind larger vehicles where I can gain some benefit from a leading vehicle's draft, yet still see and be seen. I certainly don't recommend "tail-gating" or riding within 1 or 2 seconds of the vehicle ahead, but staying with the natural flow of other traffic and maintaining reasonable distances behind larger vehicles made 5 mpg or better differences on the moment to moment miles per gallon reading for extended periods even if it was necessary to slightly increase your average speed to stay within the leading vehicle's draft. The gain was also quickly reflected as the trip mileage gauge as the trip average would tick up by a tenth of a gallon after several minutes.

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Daily Use of the ScanGaugeII
On short trips in the mountains of NW Arkansas with steep climbs on all roads out of town, I'm getting mostly 28 to 29 mpg on short trips to Alma and Van Buren. But by the time I do get to Van Buren, the trip mileage has started to climb as higher mileage is gained on relatively flat roads in the Arkansas River Valley. I'm sure my mileage with the ScanGauge has improved overall, but it's obvious that our biggest gains are recorded on longer trips. Even semi-local trips of over 20 miles allow for the tires, engine and other parts to reach normal temperature.

Figure 1 - Average MPG by month. Note that mileage declines in summer months to near the later EPA Hwy rating of 26 mpg most likely due to more short trips and increased air conditioning use. Longer trips each spring and fall are also reflected.

Using the feedback from the ScanGaugeII has certainly improved our attention to driving economically. I didn't use a tachometer until I owned a car that had one. Since that first day, I've used the tach as much as the speedometer. I think the same will be true as more automobiles gain more access to real time fuel economy data. During the last leg of the our first return from Florida with Katy driving, she averaged 32 mpg in the Arkansas mountains.  That helped the overall trip average.. During the first month I had set aside to acclimate to using the ScanGauge, we achieved one tank calculated at 33.1 mpg of mostly Interstate driving to Little Rock. We've repeated those numbers on several occasions. 

Previously, I had only seen tanks in the 33 miles per gallon range once or twice since the car's purchase in 2004 and those tanks were always on the way home from a trip to the Rocky Mountains. Those calculated tank averages were truly "down hill" and usually with a strong "tail wind!" Now tanks of over 30 mpg are much more common on trips. On a trip in 2009 to Canada, Glacier N.P., Yellowstone and the Tetons, we had 14 tanks over 30 miles per gallon and a highest tank of 38.3 mpg. The average for the 5,200 mile trip was 31.3 mpg. 

Katy and I recently purchased a 2011 KIA Forte 5 Door Hatchback looking for a newer vehicle, but one which is capable of getter better mileage. It was a long search but looking for a car with a smaller frontal area and lighter weight than the Saturn VUE narrowed the field. A six-speed sport-shift automatic transmission beat other cars with four and five speed manuals and automatics. And a 2.0 liter engine moved down the road as fast as others with 2.4 and larger engines. The KIA came with built-in digital readouts for current mpg and average trip and tank mpg. Not as much eco-feedback as I get with my ScanGaugeII in my Saturn, but enough to help us both quickly start thinking about fuel economy and adjust our behavior.

During an early Fall trip out west that included Tombstone to Yellowstone and back through Colorado's full color Aspen season, we used 18 tanks of regular, all of which were over 30 miles per gallon. Six of those tanks were over 36 mpg and the highest tank was 39.0. We covered 5,360 miles with an average of 34.6 mpg for the whole trip. I suspect we'd do even better with a ScanGaugeE monitoring the KIA's instant mileage and engine load.

Of course, we'll continue gathering more mpg data each year as we take longer trips or vacations and we constantly compare the new numbers with our previous experience over the past several trips. There's still more I need to learn about trying to improve fuel economy in existing vehicles. But at least I'm starting to get a feel for what works.

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Courtesy Issues: Let other drivers know you're trying to save fuel
One of my major concerns about hypermiling or just simply slowing down to save fuel has been to let others know that you're trying to save fuel. Several people have worked to develop reflective decals to both inform others about the hypermiling as to alert other drivers that you're making a good faith effort to save gas. I worked on a couple of designs using OpenOffice Draw, took them to a local sign shop and had them produce a few prototype copies of one of my own designs. I put the high-visibility decal on the left side of the rear window where it is easily seen.


Picture: Inexpensive 8"x3" yellow vinyl bumper sticker/window decal produced by a local sign shop at a cost of less than $1.50 each. At that price you can afford to make a few extras for friends and family members.

I remain concerned that the seasonal price of gasoline and diesel fuel can temporarily depress the price and lull drivers into returning to higher speeds and higher rates of consumption. As I've tried to explain to several friends, the long-term prospects for petroleum-based fuel prices has not significantly changed and that gas prices may be temporarily depressed because of the overarching credit crisis and the serious long-term prospect of a multi-year recession. As motor fuels approach $4.00 or more per gallon, consumers are not driving any more than absolutely necessary. Workers who are laid off aren't going on vacations, they're looking for work and making every drop of gasoline count. Gas and diesel prices will continue to trend upward as soon as the consumer demand returns to normal. In other words, "It ain't over yet!"

But I'm also concerned about letting other drivers know that they're behind a driver who for whatever reason has slowed down and is trying to save fuel. The yellow sticker on my rear window is an invitation to pass when appropriate. While driving in fuel economy mode, I always try to maintain plenty of space ahead of my vehicle so that others can pass safely and I stay in the right hand lane except to pass. I've also learned that by driving on our local Interstates at 60-61 mph seems to allow more drivers to react and maneuver into a passing lane than driving at the official 55 mph mandated during the first gas crisis many years ago. Drivers with a cell phone attached to their ear tend to stack up behind the slower car at 55 mph or slower speeds. It's all a big complex compromise, but I'm convinced that drivers conserving fuel can do so without causing traffic to back up behind their vehicle. The bright yellow decal on the rear window or bumper announces that we've driving a little slower and they may proceed at their own pace.

I've noticed that large tractor-trailer rigs try to keep moving, even if very slowly during traffic slowdowns. Well, it takes more fuel to get a large semi moving from a dead stop than it does at a slow rolling speed. The same principal applies to SUV's and passenger cars. As I get more proficient at timing local stoplights and conscious of potential slowdowns ahead of me, I'm better able to keep a relaxed steady pace that keeps our own vehicle and any traffic that wants to follow moving at a consistent, more economical speed. Best of all, if done correctly, economy driving doesn't have to be an obstacle to progress. We need to be aware of our own responsibility to help traffic flow smoothly. So think about how you can alert others to what you're doing to improve safety and consider making your own "$ave Fuel" decal that you can share with your friends.


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FINAL RULE: Don't do anything to improve gas mileage that you don't feel comfortable doing or have any question about how safe it might be. 
I'll sometimes coast in neutral for very short distances, like down a slight hill to a red light, but I've got a stick shift. Even then, the engine is still running at idle to have power assists instantly available for steering and braking. Don't take any chances with safety for the sake of fuel mileage. It's much more important to stay safe and "arrive alive."

Getting better mileage takes a little effort and plenty of practice. The more you practice, the better you'll get at it. Happy motoring.


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In December 2010, when gas was $2.88 per gallon, the average annual cost to own and operate a sedan, based on 15,000 miles of driving, rose to 58.5 cents per mile, or $8,776, according to AAA’s 2011 “Your Driving Costs” study. The average cost of driving a 4WD SUV was 74.9 cents per mile. - Consumer Reports, 4/5/11.


Learn more about saving fuel: Resources with more information
The ecomodder.com web site that contained the 100+ ecodriving tips also hosts an active forum of other drivers trying to save fuel. The contributors share their experiences and the adaptations they've made to their driving style to obtain more fuel economy. Not all of them are driving tiny cars.

Another site that contains both fuel economy news and forums for Q&A is CleanMPG.com. Be sure to explore both sites for the latest information. Everybody is getting into the act.

The Sierra Club has published an electronic newsletter article, "Max your MPG" with information and links to several new sources.

Consumer Reports files their "Fuel economy: Save money on gas," article in the "Tires and Tire Care" section but covers a much broader range of tips than keep the tires properly inflated. I use Consumer Reports tire evaluations to make sure I purchase tires with low rolling resistance and higher gas mileage ratings. Tires do make a difference. I particularly like some of the "Myth Busters" -- tips Consumer Reports shares in a special section the bottom of their article. A Consumer Reports blog post "Hypermiling - The new menace on the road?" worries that some of the more extreme hypermiling techniques are dangerous. All drivers have a responsibility to use good judgment even when trying to save fuel.

Look in the Wikipedia for Hypermiling and Fuel economy-maximizing behaviors for current practices and techniques. Both articles clearly list which hypermiling techniques are considered dangerous. The maximizing behaviors article has been flagged by Wikipedia and also clearly needs more editing by contributors, but it might take a day or two to read all the references and external supporting links. 


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